Democrats’ prospects in a trio of key U.S. Senate races are improving, an influential elections forecaster said Thursday, though Republicans are still favored to retain control of the chamber after the midterm elections.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which predicts election outcomes, moved three races — in North Carolina, Alaska and Ohio — in Democrats’ favor. After the changes, the University of Virginia-based forecaster considers four contests pure toss-ups: Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Michigan.
Democrats would have to sweep those races, and win competitive races in which they’re favored in Georgia, New Hampshire and Minnesota, to gain control of the Senate, which Republicans now hold with a 53-47 majority.
That’s a tall task for Democrats, but it represents the best chance the party has seen this midterm cycle.
In North Carolina, the race to succeed retiring Republican Thom Tillis is trending toward Democrats due to “big picture political factors” such as President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings, the tip sheet said. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, easily won the state’s March primary and will face former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in November.
The party that controls the White House is typically at a disadvantage in midterm races, and Trump’s underwater favorability in North Carolina only makes that race harder for Republicans, the Crystal Ball writers said.
The three ratings changes make “Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate,” authors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote.
Proven candidates
Two Democratic candidates who have won statewide elections in Republican-leading Ohio and Alaska buoy Democrats’ chances there.
In the Buckeye state, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking to return for a fourth term in a favorable Democratic year after Republican Bernie Moreno ousted him in a GOP-dominated cycle two years ago. Brown will face Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who has never won election to the seat but was appointed to replace now-Vice President JD Vance after the 2024 election, in the fall.
And former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, who in 2022 won a special election to become the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House in a half-century, is challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan.
Questions in Maine, Michigan
The forecaster did not change its toss-up rating for Maine, which is the only Republican-held Senate seat contested this year in a state Trump lost in 2024 and was considered among Democrats’ best pickup opportunities at the start of the cycle.
Political newcomer and Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner won the June 9 Democratic primary after his strongest opponent, Gov. Janet Mills, suspended her campaign. But some experts question his strength in a general election after more personal scandals were reported between Mills’ departure and primary Election Day.
The Crystal Ball article Thursday compared Platner to weak Republican candidates who likely cost the GOP seats in favorable election years 2010 and 2022.
The Maine race “features an embattled Democratic nominee, veteran Graham Platner, an anti-establishment candidate who may wind up being Democrats’ answer to weak, outsider GOP nominees from the Tea Party era (and, more recently, the 2022 midterm) that cost Republicans winnable races,” they wrote.
The authors also said Democratic candidate quality will be a key factor in Michigan’s open seat.
The race will likely keep the toss-up label at least until the Aug. 4 primary, they said.
Former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed has led some recent surveys in the three-way Democratic race, but polls the worst against GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens appears to be Democrats’ strongest general election candidate, the forecasters said.
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